Entrepreneur Association of Tokyo
Seminar Summary - Masanori Kanda

Successful Entrepreneurs’ Secret – You Can Predict Your Future in 60 Minutes!
May 10, 2006



“Millionaires don’t use astrologers, but billionaires do” J.P Morgan

Most entrepreneurs would agree there are a multitude of variables that come into play which will directly affect their success. When starting a new business there are many unknown factors to consider. Wouldn’t it be great if there was a way of predicting the future to avoid any potential pitfalls?

Masanori Kanda, a highly acclaimed business consultant, a best selling author and a successful entrepreneur shared his Four Seasons Theory at the May 10, 2006 EA-Tokyo seminar. Kanda emphasizes timing is the key in success. If the timing is not right, your business venture may run into many hurdles that could prove to be disastrous in the long run. What if you could minimize damage in these low periods and maximize results when the time is right? There may a way to foresee the future and take better control of your fate.

Capturing an audience and spotting trends
Rewind back to 1993 when Kanda was employed by Whirlpool Corporation as the National Operations Manager introducing US models of dishwashers to the Japanese market. Making sales was proving to be difficult because large sized dishwashers seemed impractical in small Japanese kitchens. Frustrated with the initial poor response, Kanda experimented with different forms of advertising and found using editorial spaces in newspapers to be effective. Interest and sales gradually grew using a direct marketing approach.

By 1998 Kanda started Almac Inc., a direct marketing and business consulting firm that grew into the largest Japanese organization involved in implementing direct marketing principles in small to medium sized businesses. Through his expertise in providing effective business solutions many entrepreneurs were able to turn their businesses into lucrative success stories. After years of consulting for literally thousands of companies Kanda saw some common trends emerge, a pattern exists among successful entrepreneurs.

Business cycle
There are 3 phases in the business cycle growth curve

Introductory Stage - 7.5% of revenue starts building in this stage
Growth Stage - 80 to 85% of revenue is generated in this stage
Maturity Stage - 7.5% of revenue is accumulated in this stage

In the sales or growth phase is when sales are at its peak, business is rapidly ascending but it is within this stage that some hidden problems occur and go unnoticed until the maturity stage. The maturity stage is the time to reassess the direction of the business, it is also at this time that problems come to the surface - is it time to diversify or sell?

An entrepreneur should try and find the optimal time to enter or exit the market. Timing is everything, so when is the right time?

Revelation Day
On August 23, 2002 Kanda recalls while trying to finish a book and an idea came to him. “What if I could predict the future with a growth curve?”
Kanda’s hypothesis was based on a 12 year life cycle divided into quarters, 3 years each, labeled with a corresponding season. He set about mapping out his last 12 years, chronologically listing the major events, both high and low, and saw they were joined by one line similar shape to the business model growth curve.

By using the chart, it clearly illustrated the past occurrences up to the present were more than coincidences but they were linked. Furthermore, what lies in the years ahead was also shown using this method. By using this Four Seasons theory, entrepreneurs can use it as a tool to better time their decision making, know when to ‘speed things up or slow things down’.

Life cycles and the astrological link to entrepreneurs
The aim in using the Four Seasons theory is to be able to predict the success of a business, but when applied to life in general it is similar to astrology. The 12 year cycle is also used in Chinese astrology; Kanda investigated his theory and saw it ran parallel with astrological principles. He then consulted with well known astrologer Raimu to further educate himself on the subject of life cycles and prediction.

After being a business consultant for some time Kanda developed tried and true business models for his clients to ensure success. However, even when the same business models where used by two different clients, why was one a success and the other a failure? What was different about them? Timing was the difference.

What season is it now?
For your own personal seasonal chart go to:
http://www.seasons-net.jp
(Japanese only)

Enter your relevant details into the required fields and your seasonal chart will be generated. By using this chart you can clearly see what season you are in now and what is coming up next, prepare yourself or utilize it to your advantage.

Four Seasons key points outline*
Winter – the beginning of all things, encountering new ideas for inspiration, trial and error, direction becomes clear
Spring – shoots emerge at last, more opportunities, setting up
Summer – Energetic, being swept along, affairs of the heart, swollen egos, beware of going off the deep end
Autumn – Harvest, study, tragedy, carrying out tasks that you are given

*Information taken from “Why Does Not Spring Come” Masanori Kanda, 2006
Once the seasons have been identified, it can be used as a guideline for making business decisions. For example during the autumn years try not to invest a lot of money or make major decisions as it is not an ideal time to start something new. If you are entering a spring and summer phase, these years are prime times for starting new ventures.

Change your destiny by knowing what to expect. Unless you have psychic powers it is difficult to pinpoint exactly what will happen in the future but using this theory can better help prepare you. Kanda asserts to “use the Four Seasons theory as a tool for an inner voice – don’t let it control your life.”

Is it written in the stars?
It may be difficult for some entrepreneurs to leave the fate of their business to.. well, fate. Can this chart really help my business? Kanda has received many positive reactions to the Four Seasons theory but some others have apprehensions, criticisms even, towards this theory. Some entrepreneurs find it hard to grapple with this non traditional, slightly esoteric way of doing business. Time after time this theory has been proven to be effective and many have had success using the Four Seasons theory or can see how it directly applies to their life. Whichever side of the fence you sit on there is no denying it does not hurt to have a helping hand in knowing what stage of the cycle you are in.


Text: Katherine Pham Do
Katherine is a freelance writer and photographer for both newspapers and magazines, she is the editor of Folio DVD magazine. www.foliodvd.org